Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 2.816007 3.293680 3.823637 4.454637 5.184947 6.003096 6.988688
2025-12-07 2.039335 2.666497 3.438331 4.455546 5.758336 7.368265 9.506126
2025-12-14 1.553951 2.227989 3.131380 4.424984 6.223499 8.628465 12.080607
2025-12-21 1.243557 1.928202 2.914482 4.428904 6.683949 9.903540 14.831965
2025-12-28 1.110556 1.841465 2.961283 4.785799 7.664670 12.007447 19.022570
2026-01-04 0.952297 1.678706 2.855727 4.879214 8.243153 13.574353 22.610071
2026-01-11 0.826946 1.541828 2.760962 4.961794 8.797774 15.153837 26.402265
2026-01-18 0.716016 1.406926 2.642759 4.977403 9.228771 16.568378 30.083863
2026-01-25 0.618368 1.276934 2.509183 4.938693 9.548183 17.817163 33.618046
2026-02-01 0.508115 1.101840 2.262974 4.650035 9.363907 18.141172 35.525657
2026-02-08 0.432165 0.981331 2.100877 4.494406 9.401003 18.859501 38.227357
2026-02-15 0.380434 0.902158 2.008073 4.460812 9.667230 20.032855 41.924374
2026-02-22 0.352893 0.873618 2.020827 4.658891 10.454039 22.362612 48.284568
2026-03-01 0.310271 0.802969 1.932415 4.627952 10.760892 23.777207 52.996276
2026-03-08 0.272935 0.737698 1.845211 4.585722 11.036975 25.163310 57.830563
2026-03-15 0.243473 0.686185 1.781182 4.586264 11.407913 26.796612 63.402914
2026-03-22 0.237755 0.695342 1.864958 4.954039 12.684110 30.582752 74.224516
2026-03-29 0.218259 0.663409 1.840758 5.050174 13.322105 32.997344 82.206255
2026-04-05 0.200409 0.632520 1.814043 5.135383 13.944450 35.449286 90.570575
2026-04-12 0.181685 0.595292 1.764169 5.151467 14.393068 37.539101 98.316203
2026-04-19 0.163055 0.554507 1.697595 5.111441 14.689099 39.289697 105.437361
2026-04-26 0.138063 0.488427 1.547608 4.813081 14.247798 39.132295 107.729634
2026-05-03 0.120677 0.443228 1.450866 4.652213 14.161532 39.875943 112.436719